Economists Speak In Chorus: Fed's 15-Month Hiking Cycle Set to End in June; Markets At Risk If The Call I
Benzinga The majority of economists polled by Bloomberg predict the Federal Reserve will end its 15-month streak of interest rate increases in June and leave rates unchanged at 5%-5.25% until December 2023.
This prediction is consistent with current market sentiment, as investors are pricing in an 80% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged on June 14, according to the latest CME Group FedWatch Tool.
There are clear disagreements among economists, market participants and Fed board members about the July FOMC meeting. About one-third of surveyed economists foresee a rate hike in July, while the market is assigning a 65% probability to a rate increase by that time.
Some hawkish members of the Fed who favor higher rates, such as Clevelands Loretta Mester and St. Louis James Bullard, have even mentioned the possibility of skipping a meeting and tightening policy during the summer.
A Hawkish Hold With A Split Board? The Federal Reserve has taken on a more dovish tone than expected in recent weeks, effectively guiding fora pause in June.
