Ukraine's dam disaster is 'unlikely' to derail its plans for a counteroffensive against Russia

Key Points

• The Nova Kakhovka dam breach comes amid months of buildup to Ukraine's counteroffensive, a phase of the war that many see as potentially pivotal in Kyiv's pursuit of victory.
• Ukraine accused Russian forces of blowing up the dam, while the Kremlin denied the attack and said Kyiv intentionally sabotaged the dam to distract attention from its counteroffensive.
• Andrius Tursa, central and Eastern Europe advisor at Teneo political risk consultancy, said the destruction of the dam may somewhat alter Ukraine's offensive plans, but it is not likely to derail them.

A Ukrainian serviceman fires a rocket launcher during a military training exercise not far from front line in Donetsk region on June 8, 2023.

Anatolii Stepanov | Afp | Getty Images

The collapse of a strategically important dam in Russian-occupied Ukraine raises questions about the ability of Kyiv to launch a long-anticipated counteroffensive, but analysts believe the resulting carnage is unlikely to deter the next phase of the war.