Could the world really avoid a recession?

Last year markets had a terrible time. So far 2023 looks different. Many indices, including the Euro Stoxx 600, Hong Kongs Hang Seng and a broad measure of emerging-market share prices, have seen their best start to the year in decades. Americas s&p 500 is up by 5%. Since reaching its peak in October, the trade-weighted value of the dollar has fallen by 7%, a sign that fear about the global economy is ebbing. Even bitcoin has had a good year. Not long ago it felt as though a global recession was nailed on. Now optimism is re-emerging.

Hello lower gas prices, bye-bye recession, cheered analysts at JPMorgan Chase, a bank, on January 18th, in a report on the euro zone. Nomura, a bank, has revised its forecast of Britains forthcoming recession to something less pernicious [than] what we originally expected. Citigroup, another bank, said that the probability of a full-blown global recession, in which growth in many countries turns down in tandem, is now roughly 30% [in contrast with] the 50% assessment that we maintained through the second half of last year. These are crumbs: the world economy is weaker than at any point since the lockdowns of 2020. But investors will eat anything.